Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy

"Across 87 technologies, historical learning rates were poor predictors of later learning rates."

The study analyzes 87 technologies across multiple sectors and finds that past learning rates are not good predictors of future learning rates, directly supporting caution about extrapolating a historical learning trajectory forward.

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