PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy

"Brian Potter independently reproduced the weak relationship between earlier and later learning rates in the 87-technology dataset."

Potter downloaded the underlying data and reproduced the paper's central finding that there is little correlation between past and future learning rates, concluding that simple straight-line extrapolation forecasts future production costs less reliably than he had expected.

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