In an experiment with software professionals, human-judgment 90% effort prediction intervals achieved a mean hit rate of 68%, so 32% of actual outcomes fell outside the intervals.

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"In an experiment with software professionals, human-judgment 90% effort prediction intervals achieved a mean hit rate of 68%, so 32% of actual outcomes fell outside the intervals."

The study found that prediction intervals stated at a 90% confidence level contained the actual effort only 68% of the time on average.

Source title An Effort Prediction Interval Approach Based on the Empirical Distribution of Previous Estimation Accuracy

Source authors Magne Jørgensen; Dag I. K. Sjøberg

Source year 2003

Confidence high

Importance high