Evidence

Format Online paper / PDF

"GitClear found copy-pasted lines rising from 8.3% of code changes in 2020 to 12.3% in 2024, while moved lines declined from 24.8% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2024."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title AI Copilot Code Quality: Evaluating 2024's Increased Defect Rate via Code Quality Metrics

Source authors William Harding

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"GitClear observed short-term code churn increasing from 3.1% in 2020 to 5.7% in 2024, a rise of approximately 84%."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title AI Copilot Code Quality: Evaluating 2024's Increased Defect Rate via Code Quality Metrics

Source authors William Harding

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"GitClear analyzed 211 million changed lines of code from January 2020 through December 2024 to investigate trends in code maintainability."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title AI Copilot Code Quality: Evaluating 2024's Increased Defect Rate via Code Quality Metrics

Source authors William Harding

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Web Page

"DORA’s subsequent research found that AI adoption can amplify an organization’s existing strengths and weaknesses rather than determining software-delivery performance on its own."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title State of AI-assisted Software Development 2025

Source authors DORA; Google Cloud

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"The 2024 DORA research associated a 25% increase in AI adoption with an estimated 7.2% decrease in software-delivery stability."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title 2024 Accelerate State of DevOps Report

Source authors DORA; Google Cloud

Source year 2024

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"A separate randomized trial at Google involving 96 software engineers found an estimated 21% reduction in completion time on a standardized enterprise-grade task."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title How much does AI impact development speed? An enterprise-based randomized controlled trial

Source authors Elise Paradis; Kate Grey; Quinn Madison; Daye Nam; Andrew Macvean; Vahid Meimand; Nan Zhang; Ben Ferrari-Church; Satish Chandra

Source year 2024

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"METR’s later experiment suggested that newer AI tools may improve developer productivity, although selection effects prevented a reliable updated estimate."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title We are Changing our Developer Productivity Experiment Design

Source authors Joel Becker; Nate Rush; Tom Cunningham; David Rein; Khalid Mahamud

Source year 2026

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Online paper / PDF

"METR developers expected AI to reduce task-completion time by 24%, believed afterward that it had reduced time by 20%, but actually took 19% longer."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity

Source authors Joel Becker; Nate Rush; Beth Barnes; David Rein

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"In 2025 METR randomized 246 real software-development tasks between AI-allowed and AI-disallowed conditions for 16 experienced open-source developers."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity

Source authors Joel Becker; Nate Rush; Beth Barnes; David Rein

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Podcast / Spotify embed

"Scoring systems can shape what people value and pursue, rather than merely measuring an activity."

Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER BenchMaxxing

Source title The Score

Source authors 99% Invisible; Roman Mars; C. Thi Nguyen

Source year 2026

Confidence high

Importance mid