PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER Gambling Builds No Skill

"Developers in the METR experiment believed AI made them approximately 20% faster after completing tasks, although their measured completion times were 19% longer."

METR compared developers' subjective estimates of AI assistance with randomized measurements of actual task duration. The discrepancy provides a directly measured example of perceived productivity diverging from observed performance.

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