PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 15: DEPLOY NOW, PRAY LATER Gambling Builds No Skill

"In a randomized study of experienced open-source developers, allowing early-2025 AI tools increased task-completion time by approximately 19%."

METR randomized AI access across 246 software tasks completed by 16 experienced open-source developers. In this specific setting, the AI-allowed condition increased completion time by 19%, demonstrating that fast code generation does not necessarily translate into faster engineering work.

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