Evidence

Format Online paper / PDF

"The 1955 Dartmouth proposal placed language use, abstraction, problem solving, self-improvement, automatic computers, and neural networks within a single artificial intelligence research agenda."

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Wild Possibilities

Source title A PROPOSAL FOR THE DARTMOUTH SUMMER RESEARCH PROJECT ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Source authors J. McCarthy; M. L. Minsky; N. Rochester; C. E. Shannon

Source year 1955

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"John McCarthy coined the term artificial intelligence in 1955, and the Dartmouth proposal was its first published use."

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Wild Possibilities

Source title Stanford’s John McCarthy, seminal figure of artificial intelligence, dies at 84

Source authors Andrew Myers

Source year 2011

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"Researchers surveying AI experts caution that expertise in AI does not itself make those experts skilled forecasters."

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Wild Possibilities

Source title Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

Source authors Katja Grace; Harlan Stewart; Julia Fabienne Sandkühler; Stephen Thomas; Ben Weinstein-Raun; Jan Brauner; Richard C. Korzekwa

Source year 2024

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Online paper / PDF

"Aggregate AI researcher timelines shifted materially between the 2022 and 2023 surveys, with the 50 percent forecast for machines outperforming humans in every possible task moving from 2060 to 2047."

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Wild Possibilities

Source title Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

Source authors Katja Grace; Harlan Stewart; Julia Fabienne Sandkühler; Stephen Thomas; Ben Weinstein-Raun; Jan Brauner; Richard C. Korzekwa

Source year 2024

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Web Page

"Anthropic forecast in 2025 that powerful AI systems could emerge in late 2026 or early 2027 and autonomously work on complex tasks for hours, days, or weeks."

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Wild Possibilities

Source title Anthropic’s recommendations to OSTP for the U.S. AI action plan

Source authors Anthropic

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"Sam Altman publicly predicted that AI agents could join the workforce in 2025 and materially change company output."

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Wild Possibilities

Source title Reflections

Source authors Sam Altman

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"Benedict Evans argues that strong network effects make it difficult to persuade users to switch to a similar social product merely because it is incrementally better"

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Conflict Is an Incubator

Source title Leaving Twitter

Source authors Benedict Evans

Source year 2023

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Web Page

"Mastodon creator Eugen Rochko says platform features matter less than whether the people users want to reach are already there"

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Conflict Is an Incubator

Source title Mastodon creator shares what went wrong with Threads and ponders the future of the fediverse

Source authors Jon Henshaw

Source year 2026

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Web Page

"Mariatta Wijaya became Python’s first woman core developer in 2017 and subsequently worked to encourage contributors from underrepresented groups"

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Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Conflict Is an Incubator

Source title The North Star of PyCascades, core Python developer Mariatta Wijaya, receives the 2018 Q3 Community Service Award

Source authors Python Software Foundation

Source year 2019

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Video / YouTube Embed

"The Python community used deliberate outreach to increase women’s representation and explicitly sought more women in core development"

Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 11: THE STONE OF TRIUMPH Conflict Is an Incubator

Source title The Story of Python and how it took over the world | Python: The Documentary

Source authors Cult.Repo

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance mid