Format Web Page "Meaningful stakeholder participation can reveal unforeseen consequences and practical problems in proposed regulation." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Regulating for people: OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2025 Source authors OECD Source year 2025 Confidence high Importance mid
Format Web Page "Ford’s Nucleon was a speculative nuclear-powered-car concept rather than a functioning nuclear vehicle." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Visions of Nuclear-Powered Cars Captivated Cold War America, but the Technology Never Really Worked Source authors Greg Daugherty Source year 2024 Confidence high Importance low
Format Web Page "Dean Kamen envisioned the Segway as a technology that could transform urban transportation and change how cities were organized." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Reinventing The Wheel Source authors John Heilemann Source year 2001 Confidence high Importance low
Format Web Page "Rocket belts were seriously developed as personal flight devices, but their fuel limitations prevented them from becoming practical personal transportation." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Recapping ‘The Jetsons’: Episode 07 – The Flying Suit Source authors Matt Novak Source year 2012 Confidence high Importance low
Format Web Page "The Graf Zeppelin inaugurated commercial transatlantic passenger air service in October 1928." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title The Connected City Source authors National Museum of American History Source year 2026 Confidence high Importance low
Format Web Page "Brian Potter independently reproduced the weak relationship between earlier and later learning rates in the 87-technology dataset." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title How Accurate Are Learning Curves? Source authors Brian Potter Source year 2025 Confidence high Importance high
Format Online paper / PDF "A variable-learning-rate forecasting model matched or improved on constant-rate forecasts for many technologies, but did not dominate for every technology." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Variability of technology learning rates Source authors Angelo Carlino; Alicia Wongel; Lei Duan; Edgar Virgüez; Steven J. Davis; Morgan R. Edwards; Ken Caldeira Source year 2025 Confidence high Importance mid
Format Online paper / PDF "Learning rates changed substantially across many of the 87 technologies studied rather than remaining constant through time." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Variability of technology learning rates Source authors Angelo Carlino; Alicia Wongel; Lei Duan; Edgar Virgüez; Steven J. Davis; Morgan R. Edwards; Ken Caldeira Source year 2025 Confidence high Importance high
Format Online paper / PDF "Across 87 technologies, historical learning rates were poor predictors of later learning rates." View Source Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title Variability of technology learning rates Source authors Angelo Carlino; Alicia Wongel; Lei Duan; Edgar Virgüez; Steven J. Davis; Morgan R. Edwards; Ken Caldeira Source year 2025 Confidence high Importance high
Format Video / YouTube Embed "John Danaher used rapid mid-century aircraft development followed by slower later aviation change as an illustration of uneven technological progress." Location PART 2 - FOUR HIDDEN CHIMNEYS CHAPTER 10: BUILDING-BLOCK REALITY Fallacy of Past Analogy Source title John Danaher: The Path to Mastery in Jiu Jitsu, Grappling, Judo, and MMA | Lex Fridman Podcast #182 Source authors Lex Fridman; John Danaher Source year 2021 Confidence high Importance low
