Evidence

Format Web Page

"Schmidhuber publicly acknowledged that contemporary AI-powered robots still cannot reproduce the sophisticated manual capabilities of skilled humans."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title Otac moderne umjetne inteligencije govorio o budućnosti svemira, a završnica Dana komunikacija spustila priču na ono što stvarno djeluje

Source authors HURA

Source year 2026

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"Jürgen Schmidhuber presented his vision of modern AI and the future of the universe at the 2026 Days of Communication festival in Rovinj, Croatia."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title Otac moderne umjetne inteligencije govorio o budućnosti svemira, a završnica Dana komunikacija spustila priču na ono što stvarno djeluje

Source authors HURA

Source year 2026

Confidence high

Importance mid

Format Web Page

"Historical AI forecasts have repeatedly anticipated transformative capabilities, although different forecasters often described different milestones."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title What Should We Learn from Past AI Forecasts?

Source authors Luke Muehlhauser

Source year 2016

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"Hans Moravec predicted that robots would reach human-level intelligence by around 2040 and become capable of performing work that humans could perform."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title Superhumanism

Source authors Charles Platt

Source year 1995

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Web Page

"Ray Kurzweil wagered in 2002 that a computer would pass a specified version of the Turing test by 2029."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title By 2029 no computer - or machine intelligence - will have passed the Turing Test

Source authors Ray Kurzweil; Mitchell Kapor

Source year 2002

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"Alan Turing predicted in 1950 that within approximately fifty years computers would become sufficiently capable in a text-based imitation game to confuse human interrogators under specified conditions."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title Computing Machinery and Intelligence

Source authors Alan M. Turing

Source year 1950

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Book / Offline paper

"Herbert Simon predicted in 1960 that by approximately 1980 machines would be technologically capable of doing any work a human could do."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title The New Science of Management Decision

Source authors Herbert A. Simon

Source year 1960

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Online paper / PDF

"Speculative promotional rhetoric can capture economic value, with AI startup valuations increasing alongside hype up to a critical threshold."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title The expectations game: The contingent value of hype as a rhetorical strategy in resource mobilization processes among AI startups

Source authors Judy Rady; David Townsend; Rick Hunt; Joseph Simpson

Source year 2025

Confidence high

Importance high

Format Tweet

"Lee Hepner criticized AI leaders for presenting vaguely communicated technological ambitions as justification for enormous investments, comparing their rhetoric to idolatry or a pyramid scheme."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title These guys have clearly convinced themselves what they’re doing is important beyond human comprehension

Source authors Lee Hepner

Source year 2025

Confidence mid

Importance mid

Format Web Page

"Will Manidis argues that venture funds can invent narratives that push their day of reckoning further into the future."

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Location PART 3 - THE THIRD AXIS CHAPTER 14: AGI & THE SYNTHESIZER The Eschaton Is Near

Source title Patient Capital Will Eat the World

Source authors Will Manidis

Source year 2026

Confidence high

Importance high